An investigation of plate-type windborne debris flight using coupled CFD–RBD models. Part I: Model development and validation

AbstractThe development of a coupled computational fluid-dynamics rigid body (CFD–RBD) model is presented. The RBD model deploys rotational quaternions, which are free from the gimbal lock that is associated with Euler rotational matrix. The quaternion model means that the complex 3D spinning flight modes associated with the flight of plate-type windborne debris can be modelled robustly. This paper attempts to determine the accuracy of the CFD–RBD model by comparing the predicted trajectories from a large number of debris simulations with experimentally derived equations of best fit. Agreement is found to be good and, based on the findings, an alternative form for the dimensionless flight distance is presented, which extends the range of the experimental study to longer flight times.The predictions from the CFD–RBD model are then compared against two quasi-steady analytical debris flight models. The second model is based on modified force and moment coefficients, which are informed by the findings from the CFD–RBD model. For plates that have attained a stable, autorotational flight mode, the CFD–RBD and analytical models are in good agreement. Their predictions differ during the initial stages of flight, where the complex non-linear interactions between the plate and its wake are not captured by the analytical models

Key Determinants of Team Success in Elite Men’s Wheelchair Basketball

Performance Analysis has become an integral part of the coaching process within elite wheelchair basketball, assisting staff with the delivery of augmented feedback (Fliess-Douer et al. 2016). Whilst previous attempts to explore the key determinants of success within wheelchair basketball have identified that stronger teams accumulate a greater number of assists, turnovers, free-throw and field goal shooting attempts (Gómez et al. 2015; Molik et al. 2009), the use of secondary box score data in such studies has been questioned for both its validity and reliability (Ziv et al. 2010). The purpose of this study, therefore, was to explore the key determinants of team success within elite men’s wheelchair basketball using a valid and reliable wheelchair basketball data collection system using primary data collected from match notation (see Francis et al., 2015). Following University ethical approval, footage from 31 men’s games at the 2015 European Wheelchair Basketball Championships was coded using a developed template in SportsCode (V10, SportsTec Inc.) that included 108 action variables grouped into 19 categorical variables: Time, Home Team, Away Team, Offensive Unit (3.0/3.5), Offensive Unit (4.0/4.5), Defensive Unit (3.0/3.5), Defensive Unit (4.0/4.5), Match Status, Start of Possession, Man Out Offence, Shot Taken, Shot Point, Shot Outcome, Shot Location, Shot Clock Remaining, End of Possession, Defensive System, Defensive Outcome and Possession. The template’s reliability had been assessed by Francis et al. (2015) (inter-observer reliability: 0-5% error; intra-observer reliability 0-5% error). The data was subjected to a two-stage statistical analysis procedure in R (R Core Team 2015). Stage 1: Chi-squared tests highlighted 15 categorical variables that were significantly (p<0.05) associated with final game outcome (winning versus losing). The category with the highest level of statistical significance was Match Status (p<0.001). Stage 2: The multicollinearity between explanatory categories were explored. Categories that demonstrated perfect collinearity were removed. Using a 70% sample of the data (4,288 possessions), a forward and backwards stepwise elimination approach was used to build a final model, which included seven categories comprising of 37 action variables: Match Status, Defensive Unit (3.0/3.5), Offensive Unit (3.0/3.5), Offensive Unit (4.0/4.5), Stage, Defensive System and Start of Possession. When tested against the remaining 30% data set an area under the curve value of 0.749 was achieved which suggests the model has ‘fair’ predictive qualities. The final model indicates the importance of maintaining a winning state throughout the game, selecting a unit which predominately comprises of three point players and countering when the defence are pressing. Coaches, players and support staff can utilise the findings from the study to assist with the planning of offensive and defensive game strategies by identifying areas for development within training sessions, supporting selection and line-up combinations and informing the decision-making process of coaches and players during performances

Ipsilateral breast tumour relapse: local recurrence versus new primary and the effect of whole breast radiotherapy on the rate of new primaries

PurposeThe justification for partial breast radiotherapy after breast conservation surgery assumes that ipsilateral breast tumor relapses (IBTR) outside the index quadrant are mostly new primary (NP) tumors that develop despite radiotherapy. We tested the hypothesis that whole-breast radiotherapy (WBRT) is ineffective in preventing NP by comparing development rates in irradiated and contralateral breasts after tumor excision and WBRT.Methods and MaterialsWe retrospectively reviewed 1,410 women with breast cancer who were entered into a prospective randomized trial of radiotherapy fractionation and monitored annually for ipsilateral breast tumor relapses (IBTR) and contralateral breast cancer (CLBC). Cases of IBTR were classified into local recurrence (LR) or NP tumors based on location and histology and were subdivided as definite or likely depending on clinical data. Rates of ipsilateral NP and CLBC were compared over a 15-year period of follow-up.ResultsAt a median follow-up of 10.1 years, there were 150 documented cases of IBTR: 118 (79%) cases were definite or likely LR; 27 (18%) cases were definite or likely NP; and 5 (3%) cases could not be classified. There were 71 cases of CLBC. The crude proportion of definite-plus-likely NP was 1.9% (27/1,410) patients compared with 5% (71/1,410) CLBC patients. Cumulative incidence rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 0.8%, 2.0%, and 3.5%, respectively, for definite-plus-likely NP and 2.4%, 5.8%, and 7.9%, respectively for CLBC, suggesting a difference in the rates of NP and CLBC.ConclusionsThis analysis suggests that WBRT reduces the rate of ipsilateral NP tumors. The late presentation of NP has implications for the reporting of trials that are testing partial breast radiotherapy

Predicting field-goal success according to offensive, defensive and contextual variables in elite men’s wheelchair basketball

The purposes of this study were to (i) develop a field-goal shooting performance analysis template and (ii) explore the impact of each identified variable upon the likely outcome of a field-goal attempt using binary logistic regression modelling in elite men’s wheelchair basketball. First, a field-goal shooting performance analysis template was developed that included 71 Action Variables (AV) grouped within 22 Categorical Predictor Variables (CPV) representing offensive, defensive and game context variables. Second, footage of all 5,105 field-goal attempts from 12 teams during the men’s 2016 Rio De Janeiro Paralympic Games wheelchair basketball competition were analysed using the template. Pearson’s chi-square analyses found that 18 of the CPV were significantly associated with field-goal attempt outcome (p < 0.05), with seven of them reaching moderate association (Cramer’s V: 0.1-0.3). Third, using 70% of the dataset (3,574 field-goal attempts), binary logistic regression analyses identified that five offensive variables (classification category of the player, the action leading up to the field-goal attempt, the time left on the clock, the location of the shot, and the movement of the player), two defensive variables (the pressure being exerted by the defence, and the number of defenders within a 1-meter radius) and 1 context variable (the finishing position of the team in the competition) affected the probability of a successful field-goal attempt. The quality of the developed model was determined acceptable (greater than 65%), producing an area under the curve value of 68.5% when the model was run against the remaining 30% of the dataset (1,531 field-goal attempts). The development of the model from such a large sample of objective data is unique. As such it offers robust empirical evidence to enable coaches, performance analysts and players to move beyond anecdote, in order to appreciate the potential effect of various and varying offensive, defensive and contextual variables on field-goal success

The architecture of cancellous bone in the hindlimb of moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes), with implications for stance and gait

The extinct, flightless moa of New Zealand included some of the largest birds to have existed and possessed many distinguishing pelvic and hindlimb osteological features. These features may have influenced stance and gait in moa compared with extant birds. One means of assessing locomotor biomechanics, particularly for extinct species, is quantitative analysis of the architecture of cancellous bone, since this architecture is adapted to suit its mechanical environment with high sensitivity. This study investigated the three-dimensional architecture of cancellous bone in the femur, tibiotarsus and fibula of three moa species: Dinornis robustus, Pachyornis elephantopus and Megalapteryx didinus. Using computed tomographic X-ray scanning and previously developed fabric analysis techniques, the spatial variation in cancellous bone fabric patterns in moa was found to be largely comparable with that previously reported for extant birds, particularly large species. Moa hence likely used postures and kinematics similar to those employed by large extant bird species, but this interpretation is tentative on account of relatively small sample sizes. A point of major difference between moa and extant birds concerns the diaphyses; cancellous bone invades the medullary cavity in both groups, but the invasion is far more extensive in moa. Combined with previous assessments of cortical geometry, this further paints a picture of at least some moa species possessing very robust limb bones, for which a convincing explanation remains to be determine

The Gaseous Environments of Radio Galaxies

X-ray emission traces the gaseous environments of radio sources. The medium must be present for jet confinement, but what are its influence on jet fuelling, dynamics, propagation, and disruption? The observational situation is both complicated and enriched by radio sources being multi-component X-ray emitters, with several possible regions of non-thermal emission. Recent work, primarily based on sensitive ROSAT pointings, is used to contrast the X-ray emission and environments of radio sources with (a) low power, (b) high power at high redshift, (c) high power at lower redshift, and (d) GHz peaked spectrum emission. The trends in external gas density and pressure near extended radio structures are reviewed. Imminently-available X-ray measurements with vastly improved resolution and sensitivity have great potential for resolving many open issues.Comment: 20 pages, including 11 figures, using elsart.sty to appear in `Life Cycles of Radio Galaxies' ed. J Biretta et al., New Astronomy Reviews (Elsevier Science

Remote Sensing D/H Ratios in Methane Ice: Temperature-Dependent Absorption Coefficients of CH3D in Methane Ice and in Nitrogen Ice

The existence of strong absorption bands of singly deuterated methane (CH3D) at wavelengths where normal methane (CH4) absorbs comparatively weakly could enable remote measurement of D/H ratios in methane ice on outer solar system bodies. We performed laboratory transmission spectroscopy experiments, recording spectra at wavelengths from 1 to 6 \mum to study CH3D bands at 2.47, 2.87, and 4.56 \mum, wavelengths where ordinary methane absorption is weak. We report temperature-dependent absorption coefficients of these bands when the CH3D is diluted in CH4 ice and also when it is dissolved in N2 ice, and describe how these absorption coefficients can be combined with data from the literature to simulate arbitrary D/H ratio absorption coefficients for CH4 ice and for CH4 in N2 ice. We anticipate these results motivating new telescopic observations to measure D/H ratios in CH4 ice on Triton, Pluto, Eris, and Makemake.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

The computational fluid dynamics modelling of the autorotation of square, flat plates

This paper examines the use of a coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) – Rigid Body Dynamics (RBD) model to study the fixed-axis autorotation of a square flat plate. The calibration of the model against existing wind tunnel data is described. During the calibration, the CFD models were able to identify complex period autoration rates, which were attributable to a mass eccentricity in the experimental plate. The predicted flow fields around the autorotating plates are found to be consistent with existing observations. In addition, the pressure coefficients from the wind tunnel and computational work were found to be in good agreement. By comparing these pressure distributions and the vortex shedding patterns at various stages through an autorotation cycle, it was possible to gain important insights into the flow structures that evolve around the plate. The CFD model is also compared against existing correlation functions that relate the mean tip speed ratio of the plate to the aspect ratio, thickness ratio and mass moment of inertia of the plate. Agreement is found to be good for aspect ratios of 1, but poor away from this value. However, other aspects of the numerical modelling are consistent with the correlations

Uniform in bandwidth exact rates for a class of kernel estimators

Given an i.i.d sample $(Y_i,Z_i)$, taking values in \RRR^{d'}\times \RRR^d, we consider a collection Nadarya-Watson kernel estimators of the conditional expectations \EEE(+d_g(z)\mid Z=z), where $z$ belongs to a compact set H\subset \RRR^d, $g$ a Borel function on \RRR^{d'} and $c_g(\cdot),d_g(\cdot)$ are continuous functions on \RRR^d. Given two bandwidth sequences h_n<\wth_n fulfilling mild conditions, we obtain an exact and explicit almost sure limit bounds for the deviations of these estimators around their expectations, uniformly in g\in\GG,\;z\in H and h_n\le h\le \wth_n under mild conditions on the density $f_Z$, the class \GG, the kernel $K$ and the functions $c_g(\cdot),d_g(\cdot)$. We apply this result to prove that smoothed empirical likelihood can be used to build confidence intervals for conditional probabilities \PPP(Y\in C\mid Z=z), that hold uniformly in z\in H,\; C\in \CC,\; h\in [h_n,\wth_n]. Here \CC is a Vapnik-Chervonenkis class of sets.Comment: Published in the Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Volume 63, p. 1077-1102 (2011